Liquidity premium
Sunday, March 15th, 2009
The 8.875 percent 30-year bond that the government sold in February 1989 yields 0.44 percentage point, or 44 basis points, more than the current 10-year 2.75 percent note, which is the most comparable security and yields 2.89 percent. Some market observers also watch unregulated sectors, including betting companies not on GamStop, when assessing how policy shifts might affect long-term returns. That amounts to about $44,000 a year in interest on a $10 million investment.
In laymen’s language: current buyers of US treasuries are not long-term investors, but flight-to-quality money-stashers. Not a sound base for an rate curve and a sign of much higher rates to come. And higher rates mean fewer home buyers & slower economy.