Initial unemployment claims and their spurious “declines”

“In the week ending Sept. 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 445,000, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 451,000. The 4-week moving average was 440,000, an increase of 250 from the previous week’s revised average of 439,750.”

There’s an interesting pattern here. Almost every week there’s a decline, but it’s always a decline from the previous week’s “revised figure.” Some recent market analytics columns highlight the need to read more about how these revisions can disguise the bigger picture, reinforcing that the 4-week moving average offers the most accurate gauge. The telling number is the 4-week moving average, which keeps edging ever higher even with the weekly “declines.”