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Archive for October, 2008

Buffett the bull

by henrycopeland
Friday, October 17th, 2008

Warren Buffett warns against market-timing:

A little history here: During the Depression, the Dow hit its low, 41, on July 8, 1932. Economic conditions, though, kept deteriorating until Franklin D. Roosevelt took office in March 1933. By that time, the market had already advanced 30 percent. Or think back to the early days of World War II, when things were going badly for the United States in Europe and the Pacific. The market hit bottom in April 1942, well before Allied fortunes turned. Again, in the early 1980s, the time to buy stocks was when inflation raged and the economy was in the tank. In short, bad news is an investor’s best friend. It lets you buy a slice of America’s future at a marked-down price.

Over the long term, the stock market news will be good. In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497.

You might think it would have been impossible for an investor to lose money during a century marked by such an extraordinary gain. But some investors did. The hapless ones bought stocks only when they felt comfort in doing so and then proceeded to sell when the headlines made them queasy.

Elsewhere, he notes that his investment fund Berkshire Hathaway is not 100% in stocks… why?

Google gushes

by henrycopeland
Friday, October 17th, 2008

Google’s 26% earnings growth in Q3 versus last year seems to have cheered investors, sending the shares up 10% (to $390) in after-hours trading.

Seems like very old news to trade on, since the economy went into a tailspend 90% of the way through the quarter.

Two views of the debate

by henrycopeland
Friday, October 17th, 2008

and

Unemployment claims unpaniced

by henrycopeland
Thursday, October 16th, 2008

A pleasant surprise for the economy, last week’s claims didn’t balloon.

In the week ending Oct. 11, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 461,000, a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 477,000. It is estimated that the effects of Hurricane Ike in Texas added approximately 12,000 claims to the total. The 4-week moving average was 483,250, an increase of 750 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 482,500.

Nationalizations

by henrycopeland
Tuesday, October 14th, 2008

While the short-term thrill of a gusher of cash is understandable, investors have to be fundamentally concerned at the nationalization — apparently forced in some cases — of some of the linchpin institutions of America’s economy. There are a couple myths to be dispelled:

* “This is not costing shareholders’ money, because the government is just getting a preference share and shareholders aren’t being diluted.” Shareholders’ voting rights may not be diluted, but they are getting less of the banks’ profits than they expected.

* “This happened in prior bailouts.” In fact, the FDIC has in the past been scrupulous about obtaining shareholder approvals for partial nationalizations. Here’s Irvine Sprague, chair of the FDIC at the time, on the government’s takeover of First Pennsylvania in 1980:although it may not have been legally required… the only fair thing to do was to give the shareholders a vote on the plan. They were going to take the hit if we put the plan into effect. Beyond fairness we … knew that full public disclosure and a shareholders’ vote was the best eefense against any possible lawsuit.”Meanwhile, two of the banks that did not need the government’s help are trading up. Wells Fargo is up 7.5% at $32.7 and JPMorgan is… ahh JPM is actually down 3% at $40.6. Guess JPM’s shareholders are smarter.

Seqouia warns its CEOs

by henrycopeland
Tuesday, October 14th, 2008

Silicon Valley venture capital giant Sequoia has summoned its CEOs to say… beware! Here’s an e-mail someone forwarded me this AM

> Sequoia just held a MANDATORY meeting for all CEOs. Second time in their
> history. Last time it was when the Internet bubble popped. Thought you
> might find the following interesting–notes from one of the CEOs in
> attendance
>
> * *
>
> * *
>
> ****These are someone’s notes from the meeting. Keep this note in your
> in-box and read it every day. I’m serious folks, this is for our
> survival.****
>
>
>
> Speakers:
>
> · Mike Moritz, General Partner, Sequoia Capital /(he moderated the
> speakers)./
>
> · Eric Upin, Partner, Sequoia Capital /(Eric ran the $26-Billion
> Stanford Endowment Fund and knows a few things about Economics and
> investing.)
>
> · Michael Partner, Sequoia Capital /(Michael was recruited to
> start Sequoia’s very first hedge fund, coming from Maverick Capital and
> Robertson Stephens.
>
> · Doug Leone, , General Partner, Sequoia Capital
>
> Slide projected on the huge conference room screen as people assembled
> inside the conference center to take their seats: *a gravestone with the
> inscription: RIP, Good Times.*
>
>
> *_Mike Moritz:_*
>
> * *
>
> · We are in drastic times. Drastic times mean drastic measures
> must be taken to survive. Forget about getting ahead, we’re talking
> survive. Get this point into your heads.
>
> · For those of you that are not cash-flow positive, get there now.
> Raising capital is nearly impossible if you’re too far off of cash flow
> positive.
>
> · There will be consequences for those who hesitate. Act now.
>
>
>
> *_Eric Upin:_*
>
>
>
> · It’s always darkest before it’s pitch black.
>
> · Survival of this storm means drastic measures must be taken now,
> so you will have the opportunity to capitalize on this down turn in the
> future.
>
> · We are in the beginning of a long cycle, what we call a “Secular
> Bear Market.” This could be a 15 year problem. [many slides on
> historical charts of previous recessions, averaging 17 year cycles.]
>
> · The credit market [versus the Equity markets] are the issue and
> will take time to recover.
>
> · Inflection point: Make changes, slash expenses, cut deep and
> keep marching. You can’t be a general if you turn back.
>
> · This is a global issue and not a ‘normal’ time.
>
> · There is significant risk to growth and your personal wealth.
>
> · *Advice:*
>
> o Manage what you can control. You can’t control the economy, but you
> can control everything else.
>
> § Cut spending. Cut fat. Preserve Capital.
>
> § Don’t trust your models and spreadsheets. All assumptions prior to
> today are wrong.
>
> § Focus on quality.
>
> § Reduce risk.
>
>
>
> *_Michael Beckwith:_*
>
>
> · Note: Michael had a lot of slides that were charts, data points
> and comparisons.
>
> · A “V” shaped recovery is unlikely [?]
>
> · Cuts in spending will accelerate in Q4/Q1. Look at eBay—this is
> just the beginning.
>
>
>
> *_Doug Leone:_*
>
>
> · This is a different animal and will take years to recover.
>
> · Getting another round if you’re not profitable will be rough.
>
> · Do everything possible to get to cash flow positive. Now.
>
> · Nail your Sales and Marketing message.
>
> · Pound your competitors shortcomings. They’re hurting and they
> will be quiet. Take the offensive.
>
> · In a downturn, aggressive PR and Communications strategy is
> key.
>
> · M&A will decrease dramatically and only lean companies, with
> proven sales models will be acquired.
>
> · *Spectrum discussion:*
>
> o Capital Preservation ß———————————-à Grab Market
>
> o Everyone should be far to the left (capital preservation)
>
>
>
> · *Requirements of our companies:*
>
> o You must have a proven product
>
> o You must cut expenses. Now and deep.
>
> o Your product should reduce expenses and drive revenue
>
> o Honestly assess your solution vs. your competitors.
>
> o Cash is king
>
> o You must get to profitability as soon as possible to weather this
> storm and be self-sustaining.
>
> / /
>
> · *Operations review:*
>
> o *Engineering:* Since you already have a product, strongly consider
> reducing the number of engineers that you have.
>
> o *Product:* What features are absolutely essential? Choose carefully
> and focus.
>
> o *Marketing:* Measure everything and cut what is not working. You don’t
> need large Product Marketing, Product Management teams.
>
> o *Sales & Business Development:* What is your return on this
> investment? The Valley has gotten fat with Sales people: Big bases, big
> variables. Cut base salaries on sales people, highly leverage them
> with upside (increase variable) and make people pay for themselves via
> increased sales productivity. Don’t add sales people until you’ve
> achieved your goals with sales productivity. Be disciplined.
>
> o *Pipeline:*/ /Scrub the shit out of it and be honest with yourself.
>
> o *Finance:*/ /Defer payments, what is essential? Kill cash burn.
>
>
>
> · *Death Spiral */(Nobody moves fast enough in times like these,
> so get going and research later.)/
>
> o The death spiral sucks you in, you’re in it before you know it and
> then you die.
>
> o Survival of the quickest.
>
> o Cutting deeper is the formula for survival.
>
> o You should have at least one year’s worth of cash on hand.
>
> o *Tactics:*
>
> § Assess your situation. Drop your assumptions, start with a blank page
> and start zero-based budgeting.
>
> § Adapt quickly
>
> § Make your cuts
>
> § Review all salaries
>
> § Change sales comp
>
> § Bolster your balance sheet—if you can add $5M to your coffers, take it
> and save it.
>
> § Spend like it’s your last dollar.
>
> · *Get Real or Go Home.*
>

Here’s the powerpoint:

Capitalism eaten by Uncle Sam

by henrycopeland
Tuesday, October 14th, 2008

Bankers of the world unite, you have nothing to lose but your bad investments. Well, at this late hour it looks like some odd plan is coming together that makes Uncle Sam a shareholder in some of America’s biggest and most secure banks.

U.S. Said to Invest in Citigroup, Goldman, Bank of America
Oct. 13 (Bloomberg) — The Bush administration will announce a plan to rescue frozen credit markets that includes spending about half of a total of $250 billion for stakes in nine major banks, according to people briefed on the matter.

The banks are Citigroup Inc., Wells Fargo & Co., JPMorgan Chase & Co., Bank of America Corp., Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Morgan Stanley, State Street Corp., and Bank of New York Mellon Corp., said the people. One of the people also said Merrill Lynch & Co. will receive an investment.

This is perverse not only because we’re now edging towards communism, but because the government is having to bail out what have been perceived as some of the smartest, best run and least debilitated financial institutions — Wells Fargo, JPM, Goldman. Like the decision to make an unlimited guarantee money market funds a few weeks back — which had the perverse consequence of nearly provoking a flight out of regular bank accounts with FDIC limits up to only $100k — this makes all other financial instituations look bad in comparison and further destabilizes the banking system. Sure the Brits have done something similar, but they have far fewer banks.

No doubt there’ll be a new tournequet applied to this gangrenous band-aid by tomorrow evening, but for now, this looks silly and dangerous.

For businesses, the question remains — can I get a loan to pay my staff or expand my business? — or will banks simply hoard cash as Japanese banks did throughout the 90s?

And the answer, until the Fed and Treasury start simply mailing everyone blank checks, is no loans unless you’re a government-owned bank.

But the day of free money for all grows closer. this suggests we should all be hoarding shotgun shells, seed corn, water purification tablets, jerry cans of gasoline, cartons of cigarettes, boxes of antibiotics… any goods that are more actually usable (and therefore tradeable) versus the previously useful fiction of currency or credit.

Update:Well, I went back to the same article and there are some new disturbing details (see my bold face.)

U.S. Treasury Said to Invest in Nine Major U.S. Banks (Update1)

By Robert Schmidt and Peter Cook

Oct. 13 (Bloomberg) — The Bush administration will announce a plan to rescue frozen credit markets that includes spending about half of a total of $250 billion for stakes in nine major banks, according to people briefed on the matter.

The companies are Citigroup Inc., Wells Fargo & Co., JPMorgan Chase & Co., Bank of America Corp., Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Morgan Stanley, State Street Corp., and Bank of New York Mellon Corp., the people said. One of the people also said Merrill Lynch & Co. will receive an investment.

The injections represent a new approach for Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson’s attempts to prevent a financial market meltdown from sending the U.S. economy into a prolonged recession. He’s following similar interventions by European leaders and using broad powers Congress gave him earlier this month to save the country’s banking system.

“They’ve decided they need to do something drastic and this is drastic,” said Gerard Cassidy, a bank analyst at RBC Capital Markets in Portland, Maine.

None of banks getting government money was given a choice about it, said one of the people familiar with the plans. All of the banks involved will have to submit to compensation restrictions, said the person.

The government will also guarantee the banks’ newly issued senior unsecured debt, making it easier for them to refinance their liabilities, the person said.

Allocating Money

The Treasury plans to spend $25 billion each for stakes in Citigroup and JPMorgan, people said. Another $25 billion will be divided between Bank of America and Merrill, which agreed last month to be acquired by Bank of America. Goldman and Morgan Stanley will each get $10 billion, while State Street and Bank of New York will get injections of about $3 billion each, people said.

Financial institutions are struggling to regain the confidence of investors, counterparties and clients after bad loans caused more than $635 billion of writedowns across the industry. Falling share prices have made it harder to raise equity while surging borrowing costs have made debt refinancing harder.

Paulson, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair scheduled at 8:30 a.m. press conference tomorrow in Washington. Paulson’s initiative follows an announcement in Europe that France, Germany, Spain, the Netherlands and Austria committed $1.8 trillion to guarantee bank loans and take stakes in lenders.

The press conference at Treasury will address “a series of comprehensive actions to strengthen public confidence in our financial institutions and restore functioning of our credit markets,” the department said in a e-mailed statement.

Chief executive officers of major U.S. banks met with Paulson to discuss the options for helping markets. Stocks in the U.S. earlier today rallied the most in seven decades, pushing the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index up 11.6 percent.

One other unintended consequence of this top-down approach — restricting salaries will mean all the smart folks flee banking.

Let’s not forget what started this mess… housing. Bad loans to improvident people repackaged into silly instruments sold to greedy bankers playing with other people’s money. (Now your money.) Here’s a fun blog that details how far out of whack the housing market is even as it “adjusts.” (Thank you Jesse.)

No punches pulled

by henrycopeland
Tuesday, October 14th, 2008

By Horsesass.org, home of the following two ads.

Bloody Friday

by henrycopeland
Friday, October 10th, 2008

In London, Goldman Sachs is down 20% ($81) and Morgan Stanley is down 30% ($8.70). Both are now well below the lows of the panics of the 17th and 27th, before the bailout package and before either had access to the Fed’s lending window.

In other words, “let me out God, and I promise I’ll never buy investment banking shares again.”

The print version of the New York Times had a great graph of the way the market has sold off in the last hour of trading Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Nobody can bear the overnight risk.

Odds are the entire trading day is like those panic hours.

A brave (or reckless) buyer at 3.30 PM might be nicely rewarded Tuesday morning… if the world survives the long weekend.

UpdateTurns out I was wrong about Monday being a bank/trading holiday. But the prognosticating was decent.

Three long days

by henrycopeland
Friday, October 10th, 2008

The Nikkei is down 11%.

Today US stock traders, bank account holders, corporate treasurers, money market fund managers will spend their minutes and hours thinking about the fact that at the close of business, they’ll be facing 72 hours of pitch-black handcuffed misery waiting for the markets to open Tuesday.

Many folks will choose to cash out at any price rather than face the claustrophobic uncertainty of those 72 hours.


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