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Archive for November, 2008

The future

by henrycopeland
Friday, November 14th, 2008

Layoff watch

by henrycopeland
Thursday, November 13th, 2008

Unemployment claims spiked this week into territory not seen since the 80s. “In the week ending Nov. 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 516,000, an increase of 32,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 484,000. The 4-week moving average was 491,000, an increase of 13,250 from the previous week’s revised average of 477,750.”


by henrycopeland
Tuesday, November 11th, 2008

The whole market trades like a swamp, but NYT in particular looks like it’s in a relentless death spiral. Are its lines of credit gone?

Perez and Sir Paul

by henrycopeland
Monday, November 10th, 2008

Hanging together.

Cleverest Adsense ad ever

by henrycopeland
Friday, November 7th, 2008

With Google trading at ~$335, down from $700 a year ago, the folks at Woot offer up this subtle ad when you search for GOOG, Google’s stock symbol.

Unemployment claims high (but still don’t rocket)

by henrycopeland
Thursday, November 6th, 2008

In the week ending Nov. 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 481,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 485,000. The 4-week moving average was 477,000, unchanged from the previous week’s revised average of 477,000.

McCain the gambler

by henrycopeland
Thursday, November 6th, 2008

Fox now asks: “How could [McCain] end up with a running mate who doesn’t know that Africa is a continent?”

And people thought McCain had the judgment or temperament to be President? McCain’s reckless belief in his own luck, his refusal to take counsel, his recklessness paint a long and obvious streak in his personal history. (See Matt Welch’s Myth of a Maverick.)

She did it her way

by henrycopeland
Wednesday, November 5th, 2008

Former Wonkette Ana Marie Cox is asking readers to subscribe to her private twitter feed at $100 a pop. TPM editor Andrew Golis is bemused.

Today’s up market anticipates an Obama victory (so tomorrow we’ll collapse)

by henrycopeland
Tuesday, November 4th, 2008

Factory orders fell 2.5% in September from August levels, the Commerce Department reported this AM. The credit freeze began in mid September, so a full month’s figure might be 5%… or 10%? A 5% decline in one month is catastrophic.

Nonetheless, the market is up sharply. This is most likely reflects the fact that investors and traders, after months of fretting, are anticipating a clean Obama victory. That’s what is already reflected by gamblers, who will, if McCain wins, give you $650 for every $100 you bet on Obama.

But if the market is sharply higher in anticipation of an Obama victory, the bad news is that the market will likely sell off sharply tomorrow. (Remember always: buy the rumor, sell the fact.)

Tomorrow, after a brief spurt higher, the market will go down doubly hard as it finally digests today’s bleak factory order news and the fact that we now have to sweat out three months with a lame duck president.

Sadly, Fox news, Drudge and other general economic ignoramuses will blaim Obama for that sell-off.

Update 11/05/08: Yep, Drudge took the bait.

We shall overcome some day

by henrycopeland
Tuesday, November 4th, 2008

Because this election is about hope beating fear, because this election is about competence beating incompetence, investing outperforming gambling, rationality triumphing over impulse, ideas mastering emotions, action outwitting reaction, tomorrow l’ll be humming one song. I hope you’ll join me.

We’re not arriving in the promised land. There are no utopias. There are mountain-high challenges ahead. But if Obama wins tomorrow, it is a good thing. And even if Obama were to lose tomorrow, enough torches have been lit to set the America’s ideals aflame for the next generation. We can do better and we will do better. Deep in my heart I do believe. We shall overcome some day.

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