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2008 predictions

by henrycopeland
Tuesday, January 1st, 2008

I’m gonna sound like a sheep and admit that 2008 is the year that at least one of the following happens:

a) the Internet bubble bursts, taking an avalanche of social networking start-ups down with it.

b) there’s a run on at least one major US bank.

c) one dollar buys one half a Euro.

d) journalists go berserk profiling The Crashing Wave of Retiring Baby Boomers.

e) NYT goes private. (So yes, cover your shorts.)

Caveat: my predictions are usually 23 months early, so perhaps this post should be titled, “December 2009 predictions.”

Matt in DC

by henrycopeland
Monday, December 31st, 2007

Welch makes his first of many appearances to come in the Post. “Matt Welch, a former Los Angeles Times opinion writer who wears pink vests with rhinestone buttons and has a French wife.” Thank God they didn’t notice the hat.

Deconstructing makeup: is all viral media social?

by henrycopeland
Monday, December 31st, 2007

Rounding up the best and worst advertising of ’07, WSJ’s Susan Vranica mentions Dove’s Real Beauty “Evolution” video as “one of the best examples of a company using the Web for advertising,” noting that the video was viewed 25 million times on Youtube and cost just $150k to shoot.

(More links and an overview of the Dove ad here.)

While the video may have been one of the great viral successes of 2007 (though posted in 10/06, eh?) and inspired many tributes and parodies, beyond the launch, Dove failed to follow through on the ad’s tremendous social promise.

The official Youtube version of the video, posted by Dove’s creative agency, is not embeddable.

And the “house” version video is buried on at www.campaignforrealbeauty.com, and the corresponding discussion forum is unfindable and impenetrable. (Try to find both in less than 90 seconds!)

The campaignforrealbeauty.com’s “in the news section” promises “Whether it’s local journalists or world-renowned personalities, people beyond this site are talking, too. Look around to hear the most current, interesting and, often, surprising things.”

But the most recent news is from February 2007. Almost as bad, while the ad spawned thousands of comments and blog posts, there are only a dozen or so articles linked, and all either by professional press or Dove press releases.

It’s also worth noting that most of Dove’s other efforts in the series have gotten little sustained traction. (The
longest running forum on the site has been active since May 2006 and has just 3500 comments, less than PerezHilton.com gets on a single post on a good day.)

So saying that the ad cost “just $150k to produce” is like bragging you spent a week in Vegas playing blackjack, roulette and the slots and only spent $1 to win $1000 on one pull at the slot machine.

None of this is to say that Dove did a bad job. The video itself is a work of genius. It’s just that if thi is some of the best social media advertising in 2007 (or 2006, for that matter), it’s still pretty weak relative the potential of the communications medium.

Thinking about whether viralness and social marketing are the same led me to this great video. This image has been seen far less, but is as powerful and funny as the Dove ad. (And probably cost a lot less than $150k to produce.)

The Suxorz in Facebook

by henrycopeland
Monday, December 10th, 2007

I’ve created a Facebook group for the Suxorz “worst social media campaigns of 2007” panel at SXSW. Head over and contribute pathetic nominees and withering comments. Panelists: Jeff Jarvis, Steve Hall, Charlotte Selles and Rebecca Lieb.

Blog end times

by henrycopeland
Monday, December 10th, 2007

Is the end (finally) near? Consider these two portents…

Sadly, for profitable companies waiting to see unprofitable competitors wiped from the face of the Internets, it usually takes 12 to 24 months for an obvious bubble to finally burst. Patience.

Face-time and permalinked lives

by henrycopeland
Saturday, December 1st, 2007

Though most of my “old school” still isn’t online, I’ve been enjoying catching up with people from 25 years ago via Facebook. Someone I ate lunch with in college. The brilliant younger brother of a roommate. I look forward more re-connections.

Jeff Jarvis has been thinking about the same experiences and what the future holds for our permalinked lives:

First, I think it means that they will maintain friendships and other relationships longer in life. I didnâ”t. I moved to four schools in three states in both elementary and high school (no, my father got out of the military so we wouldnâ”t move but then went into sales and we moved). I think that nomadism may have actually helped me. Friends will think this is a punchline but in truth, I was shy and being the new kid eight times forced me to be able to talk to people. But as we moved, I lost touch with almost every friend I had and that is a loss. If I had what young people have today, I could have stayed in touch with many of them or at least been able to track them through life.

I think this will lead to not just longer but better, richer friendships and I hope that is good for the character and good for the society. Youâ”ll know that you canâ”t just escape people when you move on; you are tied to your past. And youâ”ll be able to stay in touch and wonâ”t have those awkward moments of trying to catch up on 30 years over a single cocktail or email.

Bloggers are 4% of Details “power 50”

by henrycopeland
Wednesday, November 28th, 2007

Two bloggers made this year’s Details magazine list of the ‘most influential men under 45.’ Congratulations to Perez Hilton, #23, and Markos Moulitsas Zuniga, #48, who share the distinction with such nuclear powers as Facebook creator Mark Zuckerberg, #3, and iPhone designer Jonathan Ive, #22, and a couple of boys named Serge and Larry, #12. As Details explains, “There are no white-haired moguls or bank chairmen in attendance.”

On Perez: “His items have the power to create celebrities out of nobodies.” And Markos: “the entire left half of the Hill looks to the Kos the way networks look to the Nielsens.”

This isn’t the first time under-45 bloggers have appeared in Details. Check out this reprint of a 1992 Details article about Matt Welch by Henry Copeland. It’s a reprint, since Details’ online archives don’t cover pre-Civil War journalism.

Ken Layne @ aol.com

by henrycopeland
Sunday, November 25th, 2007

Ken has a new column (dare I say blog post?) at AOL. Though some Paulites leave lauditory comments, average AOLites are confused, particularly those who like to pad their pomposity with quotation marks around certain “words.” “Just who is this ‘nut-case’.” … “thanks for your inspired insight and political acumen, sharpened with cheap shot glibness, witless satire and since no one here knows who you are, wasted time and half hearted effort.” … “This ‘article’ strikes me as superficial use of valuable internet space.”

If Ron Paul will be president of the Internet, Ken Layne should be his Helen Thomas.

The people in people-powered media

by henrycopeland
Wednesday, November 14th, 2007

One of the joys of doing this business is watching people. Some grow. Some regress. And many, as a family friend once put it, just “become more like themselves.”

I’m happy to learn that Max Kalehoff, one of my favorite folks who was doing social media before it was hip, is joining a start-up.

Meanwhile, video baron Andrew Barron takes pot-shots at Jason Calacanis, the fastest mouth in the west. Barron disses Mahalo, Calacanis’ business, saying it hasn’t gotten good reviews and relies on advertising. (Who doesn’t?) Calacanis punches back convincingly in Barron’s comments.

Finally, I forgot to link to New York Magazine profile of Nick Denton.

Ultra-finally, here’s an interview that IDI’s Kevin Ried did with me recently.

Conde contentless?

by henrycopeland
Thursday, November 1st, 2007

Just looked at Conde Nast’s Portfolio site. No editorial content above the fold?

pic


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